Monday, December 31, 2007

Predictions 2008

Here are a few random predictions for 2008, most of which seem obvious. I won't be offended if you tell me I'm crazy.

1) Amazon music downloads will explode, causing Apple to re-evaluate both DRM and pricing on iTunes.

2) E-books will not take off this year.

3) Social networking spam will become unbearable, as tons of venture backed sites and technologies appear. Most will fail by the end of 2009.

4) The Wall Street Journal will becoming increasingly and inexplicably biased toward China and against Russia.

5) SOA hype will die down and real case studies dealing with large scale, enterprise deployments will show how this is an evolutionary technology that has passed the hype curve and is seeing real (and early) adoption.

6) There will be no widespread use of extended transaction models in large scale systems. (That one is for Mark!).

3 comments:

Jim Webber said...

Hey Greg,

The Web has a coordination model baked right in there. You try an operation, and you get back response codes and metadata which inlufence the future operations you might try.

OK, so this is a little like application level coordination, but at least the Web has standardised on the signal set.

So I think there will be large scale extended transaction models deployed over the Internet, because the fledging Web-as-middleware is already there.

Though this mightn't be the kind of model that Mark has in mind :-)

Jim

Greg Pavlik said...

Well, it's interesting you should use this example since it is really bilateral and carries no secondary semantics at the application level. I also am inclined to think that we will see more complicated coordination models but they will more closely resemble replication models than traditional transaction systems.

The big problem I think may crack in the next five years for enterprises (though not for consumer-scale internet users) is likely to be around contract enforcement for multistep business procedures.

Mark Little said...

I'll have to unpack my crystal ball ;-)